In winning 87 games last season, the Texas Rangers drew an average attendance that was nearly what my model predicted for that win level -- predicted attendance: 27,958 per game; actual attendance: 27,641 per game.
For this year's model, there have been no tweaks to the methodology. I have simply added last year's data to the model. For details on my wins-attendance model, click here. It is based on the model presented by Vince Gennaro in his book Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball.
Here's this year's model of Attendance versus Wins:
At 2009's level of 87 wins -- represented by the red dot -- my model predicts the Rangers to crack the 30,000 mark for average attendance at 30,593 per game. The model also predicts the Rangers to maintain last year's attendance level with as few as 73 wins -- represented by the yellow dot.
The standard error is down from last year's 2,646 attendees per game to 2,602. The R-square and Adjusted R-Square values are nearly identical.
The growth factor variable is slightly more significant than last season, but still seems more significant to the calculations than its relatively low t Stat value (1.326) suggests. Removing it from the regression results in smaller R-Square values and a larger standard error.
Using a logistics regression for the past 12 seasons (since the Tampa Bay Rays franchise came into existence), I took a look at the odds of making the playoffs for a given win level. This is based on historical probability rather than a super complex mathematic system. For a more in-depth explanation of this process, click here.
Josh Hamilton predicted that the Rangers would win 96 games. Historically, 96 wins gives an American League West team a 94.54% chance of making the playoffs (94.50% across the entire American League).
Team president Nolan Ryan predicted 92 wins. Those four wins dramatically change the team's playoff chances. 92-win AL West teams can expect to make the playoffs 62.77% of the time, while a 92-win team from any AL division can expect to make it 68.44% of the time.
Various projection systems predict the Rangers to win between 81 and 87 games. This represents quite a wide range of playoff chances -- AL West: < 0.50% to 8.39%; AL overall: 0.73% to 14.02%.
After about the half-way point in a season, the results from such a logistics regression become fairly meaningless for that season. At that point, the division and wild-card races are taking firm shape, and a daily look at the standings tells a much more complete story.
[Note: When properly applied during the off-season (or at the trade deadline), though, playoff probability added can be used to more accurately estimate a player's true dollar value to an organization. This was to be explained in Part III of my Texas Rangers win-curve series, but I stopped at Part II. I may take another crack at finishing that series this year.]